Rangel, Waters and the American public Pelosi pledged to “drain the swamp” when she became Speaker, it only took her three years to begin

WASHINGTON, DC—Why do the American people not trust the 111^th Congress and politicians at large? Two names come to mind straight away: Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters. The two congressional members are just the latest in a long line of elected officials with scandal ridden lifestyles. Rangel has been charged with 13 counts of ethics violations and word is Waters will soon be facing charges.

But they certainly are not alone. Remember Robert Wexler, the congressman from Florida that lived in Maryland? Though not reported, Harry Reid is allegedly involved in some legally bent real estate deals. Kendrick Meek, the democrat running for senator in Florida has been called one of the most corrupt members in the Florida House.

Then there’s republican governor Mark Sanford who took a week long tryst in South America to meet up with his mistress. John Edwards had an affair with a woman while his wife battles cancer. Edwards’ running 2004 mate, John Kerry just got busted trying to dodge a half-million dollars in taxes.

Scandal plagues both parties and parties are comprised of human beings but the American public knows when they break the rules, there are consequences, when politicians do, an apology usually suffices. The double standard is why the American public do not trust politicians.

-- Owen E. Richason IV

Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

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Super Tuesday! Races to watch….. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Blanche Lincoln might well be private citizens by the end of the night

WASHINGTON, DC—The administration is definitely watching some key races across the country, the most notable of which is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s republican opponent come November; Nevada republican primary candidates Sue Lowden, Danny Tarkanian, Sharron Angle all beat Reid in the polls—regardless of which GOP member wins the primary, Reid is almost certainly a  goner.

Arkansas is another big race with Blanche Lincoln facing and democrat primary run-off against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and from all polling indications, she won’t be running in the general election. And in California, Barbara Boxer will face either Carly Fiorina, a former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, Tom Campbell, a former congressman, or Chuck DeVore in the fall. Polls show Boxer is on shaky ground and republicans have a chance of picking-up her seat.

In Iowa, the democrat governor, Chet Culver, whose approval rating has been dropping will likely face republican Terry Branstad, who was governor of the state from 1982 until 1998.

Currently, the democrat majority in Washington holds an abysmal 71.8 percent disapproval rating in the Real Clear Politics average. And 60.8 percent of American’s think the administration and its same-party majority is leading the country in the wrong direction.

-- Owen E. Richason IV

Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

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Crist loses his lead; primaries seen as a foreteller of November Polls aren’t favorable for rhinos, spendthrift republicans, or liberals

WASHINGTON, DC—Appearing of FOX News, Charles Krauthammer said about Tuesday's primary elections, "I think what is more likely is that it's basically anti-big government, anti-Obama, anti-the left wing agenda. It's not so much anti-incumbent. That's an element of it. But I think the major element of this campaign is the pressure from the right."

What do Blanche Lincoln, Arlen Specter, Charlie Crist, and Harry Reid all have in common? Certainly not party affiliation, but each did endorse Barack Obama’s agenda. The infamous hug Crist and Obama shared over the stimulus package was the catalyst for the Florida Governor’s primary woes against Marco Rubio who again leads the three way senate race over Crist and democrat candidate Kendrick Meek 39, 31, to 18 percent respectively.

What’s more is a prediction by the Director of University of Virginia’s Center for Politics Larry Sabato who sees the GOP gaining seven senate seats and twenty-seven house seats in November given the fiscal irresponsibility of the democrat majority in Washington.

Of course, there have already been three major republican victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts and each was predicated on opposing and defeating the Obama agenda. With the jobless rate remaining close to 10 percent and continued terrorist attack attempts, that pattern is not likely to change.

-- Owen E. Richason IV

Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

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An unpopular president, a polarized public

Washington, DC—As President Obama finds himself on the wrong side of Super Bowl 44 predictions, picking the Indianapolis Colts in a pre-game interview, the administration is getting much worse news.

In the most recent polling, President Obama finds his job approval rating at 47 percent, according to Real Clear Politics average. In four polls conducted by Marist, Rasmussen, Gallup, and FOX News, only one shows the president with a favorable rating. That poll, conducted by Gallup, surveyed 1547 adults, and also shows the widest gap between approving and disapproving respondents. Pollsters and political advisers widely disregard polls comprised of adults, and greatly favor “likely voters” over both adults and “registered voters” as LVs are the truest measure of public sentiment. 

Mr. Obama has the dubious distinction of being the most polarizing and least approved president in American history since polling has been conducted. With unemployment figures to likely be revised up from 9.7 percent, the president's job approval rating will dip yet again.

Both liberal and conservative political pundits have pointed to focusing on health care reform legislation rather than jobs and the economy-at-large as the main reason for the president's low approval rating. Voters validated that assumption in three recent races, electing Republican candidates who opposed health care reform to governorships in New Jersey and Virginia and a senate seat in Massachusetts.

Rasmussen Reports, the only polling firm that conducts daily polls and was closest to predicting Mr. Obama’s 2008 victory over Republican Arizona Senator John McCain, shows 54 percent of likely voters disapprove of the president's job performance while 46 percent approve.

Congressional job approval remains low for the Democrat majority with a RCP average of 70.2 percent of Americans disapproving. Majority Leader Harry Reid also finds himself trailing in his bid for reelection.

-- Owen E. Richason IV
Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

The elephant in Massachusetts

Scott Brown has gone from an obscure state senator to US Senate seat could-win in a race, if held a year ago, would have replaced Senator Ted Kennedy with another liberal democrat. But in the latest polling, Mr. Brown is either within the margin of error or ahead of his opponent, the Bay State’s Attorney General, Martha Coakley.

Coakley’s campaign has been mismanaged from the beginning of the race, electing to rely on defacto support from the historical left-of-center electorate. But a little published fact is Massachusetts’ voters don’t have a majority of registered democrats, that belongs to independents (or non-affiliates)—51%, while democrats make up 37% and republicans a minute 11%—which dovetails precisely with national polling, showing independents’ falling support for President Obama.

Coakley seems to be suffering from Mr. Obama’s unpopularity. Her attacks on Mr. Brown as being a obstacle for the President’s health care reform has only led to more support for her opponent—apparently, the Bay State doesn’t much consider that a deficit. What’s more, Coakley has even gone so far as to attack Brown as being an appendage of Bush/Cheney. After fact checking, it appears Messrs. Bush and Cheney don’t hold any elected office currently, making the claim a bit difficult to believe.

Meanwhile, Mr. Brown hasn’t had to reach back to the past to find political affiliations—Deval Patrick, the democrat governor of Massachusetts is widely unpopular, as are the national party’s leaders, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. That has translated into a seismic shift in the latest PJM/Cross Target poll, giving the conservative 10 point lead among likely voters, 52% to Coakley’s 42% and an out-of-margin-of-error lead in the latest PPP poll, 51% to 46%.

The special election is being viewed by conservatives as a referendum on the Obama Administration, but White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs has state they “are not on the ballot” (even though the President has gone on a last minute push). Mr. Gibbs may technically be correct, but with GOP wins in both Virginia and New Jersey, the elephant in Massachusetts may stampede into the US Senate.

-- Owen E. Richason IV

Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

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Why Madame Speaker’s health care bill is on life support

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called the House Health Care Bill DOA in the Senate, Joe Lieberman (I-CT) said, “…I’ve spoken out a little more explicitly about this, it’s clear there are a number of moderate Democrats who are not happy with the public option” and has threatened a filibuster. Senate Majority Harry Reid has done his best side-step of actually committing to anything at this point, knowing full well the bill isn’t likely to come out of the senate anytime soon.

Social Security has long been called the “third-rail” of politics because it’s not only an electric issue when broached, it will electrocute even career politicians that attempt to go about any type of reform. Seniors know that social security is unsustainable, but don’t much care as long as they get theirs now, while younger Americans are likewise afraid to address the issue for fear it will only worsen. The public option has been greeted by the American people in much the same way as social security; they don’t want a fix they know will make the situation worse – that’s why Speaker Nancy Pelosi held the vote on a Saturday night.

But the vote passed with the narrowest margin imaginable under the current House membership, though the democrats have a 38 member majority (236 to the republican’s 198 members), the vote passed 220 to 215. That doesn’t scream confidence and the fact the House bill will have to be reconciled with the Senate, means it’ll be come out of reconciliation and up for a vote in 2010 – with off-year elections in the House when all 435 members are up for reelection, those 220 “yeas” are likely to shrink and give a swell to the 215 “nays”; there are also a couple of senate seats up for reelection as well, and Harry Reid is among them, where he has consistently been losing in the polls.

Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) said of the House version, "You have to satisfy a lot of senators. And it's going to make it more of a political moderate approach, whereas the House bill is tilted a little bit to the left" an euphemistic answer that really means, this thing doesn’t have much of a chance. Harry Reid knows that Virginia and New Jersey sent a message loud and clear to Capitol Hill and with his own reelection in jeopardy may have a sober pill to swallow.

The most interesting dynamic here is the rush to get something up to the President’s desk before year’s-end in attempt to avoid fresh minded voters in 2010. But with the current senate make-up, it won’t be easy to get a bill through reconciliation. The fact this “reform” is being rushed through makes clear the intentions of those pushing it – a road to European style socialist democracy.


-- Owen E. Richason IV
Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

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White guilt and 2012

President Obama’s approval ratings are slipping and support for his policies are likewise sliding; this has caused an early but seemingly plausible forecast for both 2010 and 2012.

Last night on The O’Reilly Factor, Dick Morris pointed out that Mr. Obama is in the same boat Bill Clinton was in his first term – tacking too far to the left after running as a center-left moderate and then staying there in hiding until the republican’s won the majority in the House in 1994. Morris also pointed out this made Bill Clinton reassess his presidency and we all know what came of it, Newt Gingrich and Tom DeLay got their agenda through the White House. Bill Clinton was now a bi-partisan, centrist president.

Fast forward to 2009, wherein President Obama finds himself in the same dilemma; just as in 1993, Congress’ approval ratings were also tanking as they are now. The momentum has shifted since 2006, and the republicans look primed to pick-up many seats, if not outright win the majority in the House.

And herein lays the road to 2012: should the republicans win control of Congress, Obama can win a second term, should the republicans not win control of Congress, Obama may still win a second term.

How so? One answer: white guilt.

Should the republicans win control of the Congress and move against Mr. Obama, come 2012, white liberals will rally to their President because of the mean, dastardly republican majority. Any problems won’t be his fault, after all he tried to fix this or that, but the right-wingers in Congress just wouldn’t let him. And let’s not forget the black and Hispanic vote; they’re well likely to share the same sympathy – not letting the first black President succeed.

Should the republicans win a Congressional majority as they did in 1994, Mr. Obama would likely have no trouble throwing his party under the bus, move to the center and ride bi-partisan popularity to reelection.

In the event that the democrats keep control of Congress that too could work in Mr. Obama’s favor. The sympathy wouldn’t be all that different – just replace a republican majority with boogie man right-wing zealots and the huge mess George W. Bush left behind.

Though the tide is definitely against Mr. Obama and his party, the tide is largely comprised of distrust and anger. As Rush Limbaugh has pointed out, that might be enough for republicans to take back the majority, but it won’t be enough to sustain them through 2012. They’ll need to keep in a leadership mode and continue to offer better ideas. But that may be all Mr. Obama needs to get enough white guilt to eek out a second term in 2012.

-- KillswitchPolitick