The elephant in Massachusetts

Scott Brown has gone from an obscure state senator to US Senate seat could-win in a race, if held a year ago, would have replaced Senator Ted Kennedy with another liberal democrat. But in the latest polling, Mr. Brown is either within the margin of error or ahead of his opponent, the Bay State’s Attorney General, Martha Coakley.

Coakley’s campaign has been mismanaged from the beginning of the race, electing to rely on defacto support from the historical left-of-center electorate. But a little published fact is Massachusetts’ voters don’t have a majority of registered democrats, that belongs to independents (or non-affiliates)—51%, while democrats make up 37% and republicans a minute 11%—which dovetails precisely with national polling, showing independents’ falling support for President Obama.

Coakley seems to be suffering from Mr. Obama’s unpopularity. Her attacks on Mr. Brown as being a obstacle for the President’s health care reform has only led to more support for her opponent—apparently, the Bay State doesn’t much consider that a deficit. What’s more, Coakley has even gone so far as to attack Brown as being an appendage of Bush/Cheney. After fact checking, it appears Messrs. Bush and Cheney don’t hold any elected office currently, making the claim a bit difficult to believe.

Meanwhile, Mr. Brown hasn’t had to reach back to the past to find political affiliations—Deval Patrick, the democrat governor of Massachusetts is widely unpopular, as are the national party’s leaders, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. That has translated into a seismic shift in the latest PJM/Cross Target poll, giving the conservative 10 point lead among likely voters, 52% to Coakley’s 42% and an out-of-margin-of-error lead in the latest PPP poll, 51% to 46%.

The special election is being viewed by conservatives as a referendum on the Obama Administration, but White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs has state they “are not on the ballot” (even though the President has gone on a last minute push). Mr. Gibbs may technically be correct, but with GOP wins in both Virginia and New Jersey, the elephant in Massachusetts may stampede into the US Senate.

-- Owen E. Richason IV

Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

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Why Madame Speaker’s health care bill is on life support

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) called the House Health Care Bill DOA in the Senate, Joe Lieberman (I-CT) said, “…I’ve spoken out a little more explicitly about this, it’s clear there are a number of moderate Democrats who are not happy with the public option” and has threatened a filibuster. Senate Majority Harry Reid has done his best side-step of actually committing to anything at this point, knowing full well the bill isn’t likely to come out of the senate anytime soon.

Social Security has long been called the “third-rail” of politics because it’s not only an electric issue when broached, it will electrocute even career politicians that attempt to go about any type of reform. Seniors know that social security is unsustainable, but don’t much care as long as they get theirs now, while younger Americans are likewise afraid to address the issue for fear it will only worsen. The public option has been greeted by the American people in much the same way as social security; they don’t want a fix they know will make the situation worse – that’s why Speaker Nancy Pelosi held the vote on a Saturday night.

But the vote passed with the narrowest margin imaginable under the current House membership, though the democrats have a 38 member majority (236 to the republican’s 198 members), the vote passed 220 to 215. That doesn’t scream confidence and the fact the House bill will have to be reconciled with the Senate, means it’ll be come out of reconciliation and up for a vote in 2010 – with off-year elections in the House when all 435 members are up for reelection, those 220 “yeas” are likely to shrink and give a swell to the 215 “nays”; there are also a couple of senate seats up for reelection as well, and Harry Reid is among them, where he has consistently been losing in the polls.

Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) said of the House version, "You have to satisfy a lot of senators. And it's going to make it more of a political moderate approach, whereas the House bill is tilted a little bit to the left" an euphemistic answer that really means, this thing doesn’t have much of a chance. Harry Reid knows that Virginia and New Jersey sent a message loud and clear to Capitol Hill and with his own reelection in jeopardy may have a sober pill to swallow.

The most interesting dynamic here is the rush to get something up to the President’s desk before year’s-end in attempt to avoid fresh minded voters in 2010. But with the current senate make-up, it won’t be easy to get a bill through reconciliation. The fact this “reform” is being rushed through makes clear the intentions of those pushing it – a road to European style socialist democracy.


-- Owen E. Richason IV
Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

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White guilt and 2012

President Obama’s approval ratings are slipping and support for his policies are likewise sliding; this has caused an early but seemingly plausible forecast for both 2010 and 2012.

Last night on The O’Reilly Factor, Dick Morris pointed out that Mr. Obama is in the same boat Bill Clinton was in his first term – tacking too far to the left after running as a center-left moderate and then staying there in hiding until the republican’s won the majority in the House in 1994. Morris also pointed out this made Bill Clinton reassess his presidency and we all know what came of it, Newt Gingrich and Tom DeLay got their agenda through the White House. Bill Clinton was now a bi-partisan, centrist president.

Fast forward to 2009, wherein President Obama finds himself in the same dilemma; just as in 1993, Congress’ approval ratings were also tanking as they are now. The momentum has shifted since 2006, and the republicans look primed to pick-up many seats, if not outright win the majority in the House.

And herein lays the road to 2012: should the republicans win control of Congress, Obama can win a second term, should the republicans not win control of Congress, Obama may still win a second term.

How so? One answer: white guilt.

Should the republicans win control of the Congress and move against Mr. Obama, come 2012, white liberals will rally to their President because of the mean, dastardly republican majority. Any problems won’t be his fault, after all he tried to fix this or that, but the right-wingers in Congress just wouldn’t let him. And let’s not forget the black and Hispanic vote; they’re well likely to share the same sympathy – not letting the first black President succeed.

Should the republicans win a Congressional majority as they did in 1994, Mr. Obama would likely have no trouble throwing his party under the bus, move to the center and ride bi-partisan popularity to reelection.

In the event that the democrats keep control of Congress that too could work in Mr. Obama’s favor. The sympathy wouldn’t be all that different – just replace a republican majority with boogie man right-wing zealots and the huge mess George W. Bush left behind.

Though the tide is definitely against Mr. Obama and his party, the tide is largely comprised of distrust and anger. As Rush Limbaugh has pointed out, that might be enough for republicans to take back the majority, but it won’t be enough to sustain them through 2012. They’ll need to keep in a leadership mode and continue to offer better ideas. But that may be all Mr. Obama needs to get enough white guilt to eek out a second term in 2012.

-- KillswitchPolitick