An unpopular president, a polarized public

Washington, DC—As President Obama finds himself on the wrong side of Super Bowl 44 predictions, picking the Indianapolis Colts in a pre-game interview, the administration is getting much worse news.

In the most recent polling, President Obama finds his job approval rating at 47 percent, according to Real Clear Politics average. In four polls conducted by Marist, Rasmussen, Gallup, and FOX News, only one shows the president with a favorable rating. That poll, conducted by Gallup, surveyed 1547 adults, and also shows the widest gap between approving and disapproving respondents. Pollsters and political advisers widely disregard polls comprised of adults, and greatly favor “likely voters” over both adults and “registered voters” as LVs are the truest measure of public sentiment. 

Mr. Obama has the dubious distinction of being the most polarizing and least approved president in American history since polling has been conducted. With unemployment figures to likely be revised up from 9.7 percent, the president's job approval rating will dip yet again.

Both liberal and conservative political pundits have pointed to focusing on health care reform legislation rather than jobs and the economy-at-large as the main reason for the president's low approval rating. Voters validated that assumption in three recent races, electing Republican candidates who opposed health care reform to governorships in New Jersey and Virginia and a senate seat in Massachusetts.

Rasmussen Reports, the only polling firm that conducts daily polls and was closest to predicting Mr. Obama’s 2008 victory over Republican Arizona Senator John McCain, shows 54 percent of likely voters disapprove of the president's job performance while 46 percent approve.

Congressional job approval remains low for the Democrat majority with a RCP average of 70.2 percent of Americans disapproving. Majority Leader Harry Reid also finds himself trailing in his bid for reelection.

-- Owen E. Richason IV
Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

Lessons from Virginia and New Jersey

McDonnell wins in Virginia. Christie wins in New Jersey. Foretellers of 2010? It all depends who you ask and from what vantage point they stand.

Governors elect Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie have their work cut out for them. Not unlike Arnold Schwarzenegger, both will have a tough go of the reforms they campaigned on: both states have big fiscal and unemployment problems.

Policy aside, what do these races say about the national political landscape? They point to change, and a monumental one at that. Pundits on the right clearly marked these races as referendums on President Obama; pundits on the left say it isn’t about Obama or his policies, that all politics are local. Of course that might be true but so is the fact that the President stumped several times for Creigh Deeds and even appeared in a campaign commercial; while in New Jersey, the President’s voice went out election-eve to voters on robo-calls, though Press Secretary Gibbs said of the President on election day, "He's not watching returns."

The question one must ask oneself about these election results is why? Why did the voters of New Jersey and Virginia elect republican governors and cast out-of-the-way establishment democrats? The answer is very simple; independent voters are taking their support away from one camp and putting it into another.

Independents flocked to the GOP and away from tax-and-spend liberals. It’s that simple. Voters don’t want to pay more in taxes when unemployment is at a 10% national average. They don’t want Washington or Trenton or Richmond to be talking about health care reform when there transportation systems are rusting.

Both republican candidates kept their issues to the state’s best interest and contrasted it against the national background. Will this strategy work for congressional and senatorial republicans come 2010? That largely depends on two factors: if the democrats keep on their present tone-deaf agenda of raising taxes and creating new government bureaucracies and if the GOP can actually govern and lead, instead of just criticizing.

Candidate Obama promised a lot of things, campaigning as a slightly left-of-center moderate, but President Obama hasn’t delivered on those promises, governing as a left-of-left politician; and those are the lessons from New Jersey and Virginia – if you talk the talk, once you’re elected you better walk the walk.

-- The Editors, Killswitch Politick

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The Obama referendums: Virginia to turn red, New Jersey, purple?

Ten months into the Obama Presidency and almost three years into the democrat congressional majority, the first national races with national implications are trending republican, even in the bluest of states.

Most astute political analysts see two of four races as referendums on the Obama administration. And with good cause as they are gubernatorial races in two states Mr. Obama easily carried in 2008; it now appears there is at least organized opposition and in the worst case scenario for the administration, voter’s remorse.

In the first circumstance, it means voters in northern Virginia are not motivated to go to the polls – it was they who delivered the state to Barack Obama last November; while in New Jersey it is an unadulterated protest to the incumbent governor. The second circumstance appears to the beginning of the end of Washington’s tone-deafness and the voters of these states are among the first to tell rank-and-file congressional democrats, “You’re next”.

Whichever circumstance you prefer, both have one underlying message – Americans have grown tired of do-nothing politicians who occupy themselves with cost-exploding health care reform and talk of saving the environment while the unemployment rate nears 10%, personal savings shrink, the economy continues to drift downward.

Aside from the national discontent, there are hard numbers that paint an even grimmer picture for next year’s mid-term elections – the leaders in these races are stumping on traditional American values with a hefty side of supply-side policies and traditional American values.

In Virginia, former Attorney General Bob McDonnell maintains a double digit lead over his establishment incumbent, Attorney General Creigh Deeds. Mr. McDonnell’s campaign has focused on Virginia’s economy, infrastructure and education with a careful calculation not to nationalize the race. That strategy paid-off big time, immunizing McDonnell against Obama stumping – something Mr. Deeds’ team now knows has done little to nothing for their candidate.

In New Jersey, incumbent tax-and-spend liberal John Corzine opted out of the state’s campaign finance system, spending a whopping $11 million more than Republican challenger Chris Christie, only to find himself trailing in the latest polls.

New York's ostensibly Republican District 23 saw a huge shake-up this past weekend when Dede Scozzafava, a liberal republican, left the race while trailing conservative Doug Hoffman, an accountant who entered the race as a challenge to the RHINO and establishment liberal Bill Owens. When Scozzafava left the race, she trailed the conservative Hoffman by 15 points and the latest polling shows Hoffman leading democrat Owens by 5 points.

Lastly, in Pennsylvania, Republican-endorsed candidate for the state Supreme Court, Judge Joan Orie Melvin, is running strong opposition to Democrat Jack Panella; this in a state Mr. Obama carried by 10 points.

What New Jersey, New York 23, Virginia, and PA demonstrate is that fiscal conservatism and libertarian get and keep the government out of our lives is taking hold around the country in early elections. Moreover, it sends a clear message to Washington’s tax-and-spend liberals, “You’re next.”

-- The Editors, Killswitch Politick

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