White guilt and 2012

President Obama’s approval ratings are slipping and support for his policies are likewise sliding; this has caused an early but seemingly plausible forecast for both 2010 and 2012.

Last night on The O’Reilly Factor, Dick Morris pointed out that Mr. Obama is in the same boat Bill Clinton was in his first term – tacking too far to the left after running as a center-left moderate and then staying there in hiding until the republican’s won the majority in the House in 1994. Morris also pointed out this made Bill Clinton reassess his presidency and we all know what came of it, Newt Gingrich and Tom DeLay got their agenda through the White House. Bill Clinton was now a bi-partisan, centrist president.

Fast forward to 2009, wherein President Obama finds himself in the same dilemma; just as in 1993, Congress’ approval ratings were also tanking as they are now. The momentum has shifted since 2006, and the republicans look primed to pick-up many seats, if not outright win the majority in the House.

And herein lays the road to 2012: should the republicans win control of Congress, Obama can win a second term, should the republicans not win control of Congress, Obama may still win a second term.

How so? One answer: white guilt.

Should the republicans win control of the Congress and move against Mr. Obama, come 2012, white liberals will rally to their President because of the mean, dastardly republican majority. Any problems won’t be his fault, after all he tried to fix this or that, but the right-wingers in Congress just wouldn’t let him. And let’s not forget the black and Hispanic vote; they’re well likely to share the same sympathy – not letting the first black President succeed.

Should the republicans win a Congressional majority as they did in 1994, Mr. Obama would likely have no trouble throwing his party under the bus, move to the center and ride bi-partisan popularity to reelection.

In the event that the democrats keep control of Congress that too could work in Mr. Obama’s favor. The sympathy wouldn’t be all that different – just replace a republican majority with boogie man right-wing zealots and the huge mess George W. Bush left behind.

Though the tide is definitely against Mr. Obama and his party, the tide is largely comprised of distrust and anger. As Rush Limbaugh has pointed out, that might be enough for republicans to take back the majority, but it won’t be enough to sustain them through 2012. They’ll need to keep in a leadership mode and continue to offer better ideas. But that may be all Mr. Obama needs to get enough white guilt to eek out a second term in 2012.

-- KillswitchPolitick

With Friends Like These (or, Sympathy for the Messiah)

Amongst the fan-fare and media/electorate honeymoon, once aspiring state senator, and electoral promotion via opponent disqualification to US Senator, the 44^th President became the last man standing in last years national election.

Following what Dick Morris cites as a LBJ inspiration, keeping political enemies closer so they’d be standing inside “pissing outside the tent” rather than in; President Obama trapped the Clintons: the former First Lady as a powerless Secretary of State and pigeon-holed the 42^nd President as a special envoy to Haiti. Former also-twice-ran presidential candidate, Joe Biden became a running mate and has since moved into the Naval Observatory residence.

But in lassoing in his former rivals to hedge his bets, Mr. Obama has to constantly egg-shell walk day by day: he has a Vice President whose gaffes explode without warning, a Secretary of State that’s itching to plunge the knife into his back at the first opportunity, a Press Secretary that bungles his way through one press conference after another, going so far to tell the press core to contact the White House for an explanation of the now infamous Air Force One/NYC photo-op.

And it doesn’t end there.

His Treasury Secretary, like many of his other appointments, has a inexplicable tax problem and runs a field with overreaches on talking head programs, a House Speaker who can’t seem to keep from impeaching her own credibility, a Senate Majority Leader whose re-election prospects are waning fast, a rabid hard-left fringe base that is turning ever more angry and a European fan club that cheered him into office that won’t lend a hand other than to shake and send him on their merry way.

Aside from the personalities, there’s no end of real crisis:

The imploding American auto industry, a seemingly bottomless housing free fall, two wars, a credit calamity, uneasy suits on Wall Street, an insolvent west coast state, ever expanding unemployment and debt larger than any one can possibly count.

Not to mention, a maniacal Persian dictator just itching to start a war with our only true ally in the Middle East and a crazed half-pint NorK who likes to launch missiles as a backdrop to end-of-nuclear proliferation speeches.

14 Day Election Countdown -- Politicking Strategies

So being that the general election is only 14 days away, the republican, democrat campaigns and the media are all strategizing to win.

On the democrat side, Michelle Obama and (perhaps Joe Biden) have been sequestered because of their inability to wisely choose their words. (One of Biden's latest gaffes was a McCain slam gone awry, "Look, John's [McCain] last-minute economic plan does nothing to tackle the number one job facing the middle class, and it happens to be, as Barack says, a three-letter word; jobs. J-O-B-S.")

Both McCain and Obama have staked the economy as the centerpiece of the campaign, which practically every pundit has given the advantage to Obama. And McCain has suffered because national security and foreign policy have been off-the-radar.

But two instances have put Obama on defense on both the economy and national security/foreign policy first was Obama's fumbled answer posed to "Joe the Plumber"; second was Joe Biden's unscripted insertion of national security with his remarks about Obama being tested within the first six-months of their administration. As a result, the polls will tighten and shift toward the republican nominee.

According to Dick Morris, Obama may have picked too soon and most astute political observers would have to conclude or conceed that the Illinios Senator is losing ground in the polls and not because of anything McCain has done in-particular -- as with most of these historical phenominoms, the damage has been self-inflicted (e.g. Dukakis' tank ride, George H.W.Bush's "read my lips, no new taxes", Dole's senate resignation, Al Gore's three distinct debate personalities, Howard Dean's scream-heard-round-the-world, Kerry's "I voted for it before I voted against it".

"I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody" and "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama...watch, we're gonna have an international crisis..." these two qoutes have turned the campaign-focus to where Obama is weakest.

What-is-more is that GOP leaners have learned from 2000 and 2004 wherein both elections were close and allegations of voter fraud, mishandled counting and the like. So this year, they are being proactive in putting the so-called voter registration organizations (particularly ACORN) on defense. And now, with the revelation that ACORN has registered Mickey Mouse to vote, the public will be suspicious of Obama's past and present associations.

Meanwhile, the mainstream media is also strategizing for themselves and for the democrat nominee as media bias is now as transparent as could be possible, without being honest. It is plain to see that the network newscasts are and have been favoring Obama.

No matter, every year the mainstream press features stories about the coming dismal retail sales and every year, sales are higher than forecast. And every presidential election, the mainstream press predicts a race too-close-to-call...well, they've been right at least once.

A Dud Debate

Last night's debate was a snoozer; period.

McCain looked as though he was just thawed out, programed with voice-recognition software and put on stage. Obama came across as arrogant at times and the majority of his remarks either made little sense or were peppered with euphemisms for "big brother government".

But niether candidate made a news-worthy gaffe or botched an answer or got in a knee-slapping zinger.

What this means is the race still remains just as it was yesterday before the debate: close.

Today's national tracking polls among likey voters are beginning to show signs of turning back to McCain, but this assertion requires another two days of the same tracking. And by that accepted standard, would effect a trend. Last night's debate will not have a full three day effect because (by comparison to the veep debate) no one watched the damn thing.

And with viewership as low as this debate garnered, the polls are highly unlikely to show significant swings. So with the polls starting to shift, and without a big bang to point to, the explanation must lie elsewhere.

Rush Limbaugh on his radio program today made a point to note that Obama has never put-up a fight in a tight race and won. "He can't close the deal" the radio talk show host observed. Even the primaries put on display the Illinois Senator's weakness: practically all media had declared Hillary down-and-out and then, like Rocky Balboa, she got up and fought back. Mrs. Clinton won state after state and put to-the-test the democrat primary system.

But as pointed out in this very blog, the fix was in from the get-go as the beltway dems, the far-left activist 527's, the DNC, democrat pundits and sympothetic media had enough of the Clinton reign.

Yet even with that massive support group Obama could not stop Hillary from capturing the most important primaries. His nomination came not of his own integrity and valition, but by the grace of the superdelegates.

So what would explain the stagnating poll numbers?

As William of Ockham would conclude, the simplest explaination tends to be the correct one. And that is: Obama is still a relative unknown and what is becoming known isn't so appealing to the man-on-the-street. And with Labor Day now five weeks behind, the voting public are paying day-to-day attention (probably because they have little choice given the onslaught of 24/7 meida and campaign politicking both by the parties).

McCain will also suffer from more media attention because of his lack of charisma and frankly, because of his age. But McCain has an advantage: he is a statesman whereas Obama is an upstart.

Moreover, though some of McCain's associates might be lobbyists, none have bombed the Pentagon, none have preached America a racist country, and probably none have been convicted of fraud, attempted bribery and money laundering charges.

Further, with negative ads characterizing Obama as a typical tax-and-spend liberal coupled with the his own gaffes, and those of his running mate, Joe Biden, the voting public are forming their opinions.

The polls are begining to reflect that as Obama's past associations, public statements and voting record become more known the harder it will be to explain away.

Veep Critique and the Latest (Stacked) Polls

Last night's vice-presidential debate was a big television draw, garnering more viewers than the lack-luster presidential between Obama and McCain...congratulations to Sarah Palin and Joe Biden for delivering solid and interesting performances.

Governor Palin shined brightly and spoke directly to the American people, connecting through the airwaves straight into "Joe six-pack's" living room. Senator Biden was astute and showed the priming of a well-seasoned politician.

Both managed their time and answers well, but in the end, Palin scored on style with plenty of substance to reignite the McCain campaign and score political amnesty from the Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric "gotcha" interviews. Gwen Ifill moderated well enough, and wasn't overtly biased.

Yet even with Sarah Palin's stellar performance, the national tracking polls still show an Obama lead. (Remember a rule of polling is that something has to occur to move the polls.) Perhaps the polling is still reflective of the bailout debacle, but with the Senate passing the bill yesterday and the House just passing it this afternoon, Wall Street is reacting, and so should the polls.

In examining today's tracking polls, the forecast until the week of October 27th is an Obama lead. And the reason for this conclusion is simple: the weighting samples are stacked with democrats and 2004 independent leaning Kerry voters.

And so it is for nearly every tracking poll, whether state-by-state or national, the pollsters are stacking their samples with a greater percentage of likely-voter democrats than republicans and then releasing their numbers that reflect an Obama lead...just as was done in the last two presidential elections.

This should come as no surprise with the blantant bias the media personalities have exhibited, from Katie Couric's interview and hack-editing of Sarah Palin, to Charlie Gibson's pomposity, to Chris Matthews and Keith Olberman's demotions for unbridled partisan editorializing.

The fix is in and the mainstream media is in the tank for the Illinois Senator but they'll maintain their facade of objectivity, at least until November 5th.

The Clinton's Campaign

The Internet buzzing rumor that gaffe-o-matic Joe Biden is due to be dropped by Barack Obama the first week in October and replaced by Hillary Clinton has now been picked-up by the international tabloid media.

While the credibility of the email that's claiming this strategy cannot be quantified by Snopes.com (which lists the virtual chain letter as undetermined), it nevertheless is garnering more attention. Probably because Biden's gaffes are becoming impossible to ignore: asking a wheelchair-bound state senator to stand, lauding Roosevelt's televised leadership when the stock market crashed, trashing coal energy in one state while his running mate cheered it in another, telling Katie Couric he disapproved of a negative McCain ad that was approved by Obama.

But to spite Biden's gaffes, the Obama camp has not made any moves to drop it's veep. Though I and many others have written that it would be a way to shake the presidential campaign and possibly fast-track Obama to victory. But the likelihood of this stunt in the current political climate is both nil and frankly, stupid (see George McGovern's 1972 campaign).

It is quiet clear the democrat party remains divided, polls consistently show Hillary supporters are not flocking to Obama and a small but unwavering percentage are supporting McCain.

Let's be completely honest, the Clinton's have no love for Obama and feel (rightly so) they were mistreated by the media, betrayed by the beltway dems and left campaign-cash poor by the far left. Indeed, the Clinton's were being jettisoned from the party leadership and figured to be resigned to political flotsam.

And when the history of this race is told in hindsight, that is precisely what happened: the DNC, K-street dems, and anti-war, anti-establishment left and the media were tired of being collectively suffocated by the Clintons and when presented what at the time seemed to be a viable alternative, took it with blind enthusiasm.

But the irony of the Obama nomination is that it wasn't ever supposed to happen. After George McGovern's electoral thrashing, the democrat party took it upon itself never to be caught nominating a far-left nominee, estopped in future elections by their "superdelegates". Yet with their eagerness to rid themselves of Bill and Hillary, the democrat party did just that.

Returning the favor as revenge dish served cold, Bill Clinton has been all over television in different interviews throwing Barack under the bus. All the while, Hillary has become more tepid in her tongue-biting support of Obama. Moreover, media elite liberals are beginning to question the viability of their nominee.

Thre is no doubt that Obama needs the full support of both President Clinton and Senator Clinton to win in November, while the former president and his senatorial wife are campaigning, they certainly aren't campaigning for their party's nominee...the political irony is just too much.

Turn Strategy (Part II)

McCain/Palin are up in Florida, they're up in Ohio, they're within the margin of error in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Intrade Market Odds have McCain over Obama 52.6 to 46.1. Rasmussen, Gallup, Hotline/FD tracking, Ipsos all have McCain up in their national tracking. Moreover, Intertrade has Biden's potential withdrawal from the democrat ticket skyrocketing.

So here's the rub: Obama is remains in serious trouble and Biden is weighing him down. Make no mistake about it, among the newest Joe Biden gaffes was a deliberate trial-balloon regarding his higher qualification of Hillary Clinton to be Vice President. What makes it appear to be a gaffe is that the Delaware democrat is gaffe-o-matic.

Since being tapped as Obama's running mate, I have been unable to offer one serious compelling reason to add Biden to the ticket. Joe is gaffe-o-matic, he was run-out of the 1988 race for plagiarism, he didn't garner any substantial support in the primaries, he doesn't bring any identity politicking (other than white males).

The turn strategy I just wrote about is needed this instant, if Obama wants to regain control of the polls, the race, and momentum perception. With desparation clearly setting-in on the left and what the interals are identifying, Obama is self-imploding. Desparte times call for drastic measures and he needs to do the following:

1) Dump Biden (give him a graceful exit and then leak vetting governors Bill Richardson and Kathleen Sebelius; let the press have a feeding frenzy for a few days, then yank the rug and name Hillary Clinton).

2) Stop running against Bush, it is not working. If it were, the latest polling wouldn't show that voters are even less confident in democrat's on national security.

3) Drop the ad-libbing, drop the ad-hominem attacks, and drop the pessimism. Get optimistic about the future under an Obama administration.

4) Stick to the stump issues and talk-up tax cuts for middle-class America, energy independence with new technologies requiring the oil companies to lead the way, turn education around from the ground-up, a better health care system with doctor's in charge and let the Iraqi's take the lead, while the US begins an incremental draw-down.

McCain and Palin are leading because they're looking forward and have divorced themselves from Bush, while Obama is looking backward, and you can't lead by looking back. Dump the hope and change and the more-of-the-same messages and get voters to look at a better America four years from now.

Turn Strategy

Now is the time for what I call a "turn strategy" which is being able to redirect a campaign direction without changing the fundamental platform.

McCain did this by picking Sarah Palin -- although not trailing far in the polls, McCain was obviously having trouble pulling it together. Palin has proven beyond a doubt that her balance on the ticket has made this a winnable campaign.

Obama is publicy struggling to keep his momentum: the backfires of the European tour, the Biden poll flatline, and the upstaged convention have put the Illinios Senator on ad-hominem defense.

If the former community organizer wants to get back on solid ground, he's going to need a turn strategy straightaway.

The allies that got Obama past the primaries are still viable: the mainstream media, the anti-Clinton crowd and the anti-war liberal base. Now that he's in the general election, these groups are still at heart Obamamanics but independents need reassurance to believe.

The hope and change message was always risky because it forever begged a definition. Sooner or later the lofty has to be made real because the American public always want to know the catch.

As the democratic nominee has begun to fall in the national polls, he has done more self-inflicted damage by getting specific (see http://killswitchpolitick.blogspot.com/2008/08/devil-is-in-details.html) and by attacking Sarah Palin.

Neither of these strategies turn the negative attention away from Obama and only help to bolster the McCain/Palin policy maturity. It also makes small Obama's stature.

Obama needs to stop the ad hominem attacks and focus optimistcally on the issues, as the issues are to his benifit when stumping positive. Likely independent voters are turned-off by the farding a sow comments, but speaking about a better America gets their attention and perhaps their admiration. Likewise, moving to the center or center-right on taxes, eduction and the economy may disturb the hard-left now, but come November, they'll still pull the handle for the democrat, plus independents as well as disaffected r.h.i.n.o.s may give him a chance.

The turn strategy is due at this very moment, without a clear direction change the democrat nominee will be watching the inaguaration from the bleachers.

Media Oblique

This past week has put on full display for anyone who pays even scant attention the blatant bias of the "mainstream media" (e.g. MSNBC, CNN, the New York Times) vis-a-via the assualt on Sarah Palin and the likewise treatment given to Hillary Clinton during the primaries.

Even Oprah has shown her political bias by not inviting the GOP VP nominee, claiming that she does not want to lend her ratings as a political platform (yet that self-imposed standard was not applicable when Barack Obama appeared twice as a presidential candidate).

The common thread here is not particularly gender bias, but political bias.

Ask the average man on the street if Rush Limbaugh is a conservative or liberal, you're going to get the correct affiliation (perhaps peppered with explicatives). Dittos for Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck, the second and third most listened-to radio talk show hosts. The answer maybe correct but the source from which the answer given is likely to be third-party drawn.

But if you actually tune-in to one of these three, they won't claim objectivity, they tell their audiences their political diposition.

When the New York Times, CNN, or MSNBC cite one of these three personalities they routinely qualify the introduction with "conservative talk-show host". While Chris Mattews, Keith Olberman rant against anything Republican or conservative, they claim objectivity.

If you've seen the TV ad for National Review, it boasts its conservative dispatch, but the New York Times TV ad says nothing of its ever more left leanings; instead it highlights its fashion, style, weekend, and et cetera sections.

Remember Rep. Gary Condit?

That's pricely how most ever print publication and TV news crawl labeled the former California congressman. His (D) political affiliation rarely appeared after his name, whereas in 2006, Republican Mark Foley's name was ubiqitous.

This is also explains why so little coverage is given to Biden's public record, but the same outlets are quick to highlight Palin's personal life.

The Matthews/Olberman demotions are proof positive that news consumers know when they're listening to commentary and when they're listening to hard news. The late Tim Russert was a democrat, but you wouldn't know it by his moderating, you'd have to derive that fact from his work-history.

Palin and the Polls

We all know that Obama did not get a bounce from selecting Joe Biden as his running mate. The McCain camp hopes that after tonight, Palin will deliver an uptick in his poll numbers, and given the enthusiasm the GOP is showing, it is all but certain.

Given that we live in a poll-driven 24/7 news cycle, the media will surely over-analyze Palin's convention speech and tomorrow, will inundate its consumers with new flash polls and talking-head speech impact predictions.

Should McCain receive a bounce, the media is likely to report it as a dead-heat horse race; should Palin not deliver, the media will likely cast her as a pariah. (Media bias has become more definable and the average news consumer is now telling pollesters just that.)

Any political anaylist worth his salt will tell you when it comes to polls, the devil is in the details. Campaigns look at their internals and toss aside things such as registered voter polls, flash and exit polls, frankly because respondents prior to election day lie about their intention to turn-out, or are reacting to some news event, or on election day, who they actually voted for.

That's why likely voters are the best indicators prior to the election, however the day, time, and demographic are key to deciphering the accuracy.

Over the past few weeks, LV polls have shown time and again, Obama is in trouble. At this juncture, the Illinois Senator should have at least 12 to 15 point lead -- he does not. What's more his generic electoral count is mucher higher than McCain's, meaning he has little room to grow, whereas McCain can make bigger leaps.

McCain is leading in Florida and Ohio, and is within a point of the margian of error in Michigan, and nearly as close in PA. Save the partisan 527 sniping, any real momentum is likely to come from the debates and with the approach of the debates, it means voters are still unsure about Obama and he can little afford a misstep.