Dems confront midterm realities, brace for losses Insiders and pundits say a new focus on 2012 means 2010 is being conceded

WASHINGTON, DC—Looking at recent primary races and devastating losses of two key governorships and a liberal stalwart senate seat, democrat leaders are struggling to stave off election loses…..in 2012.

Until now, the democrats thought they would have enough time to turn their collective fortunes around, but Beltway insiders are on the outs with an increasingly angry electorate who are tossing establishment candidates out like yesterday’s trash.

Robert Gibbs July 11^th statement on Meet the Press expresses the conventional wisdom coming from the democrat party—republicans are poised to take the House, and the Senate isn’t far out of reach. Barbara Boxer faces a tough reelection challenge as does Russ Feingold. In congressional races across the country, conservative outsiders are in strong positions to win their race. Republicans need 39 House seats to take the majority, and 10 Senate seats. As of mid-July, there are more than 40 House seats trending toward the GOP and four to five Senate seats look winnable.

Democrats are repeating the painful results of hope and change.

-- Owen E. Richason IV

Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

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The elephant in Massachusetts

Scott Brown has gone from an obscure state senator to US Senate seat could-win in a race, if held a year ago, would have replaced Senator Ted Kennedy with another liberal democrat. But in the latest polling, Mr. Brown is either within the margin of error or ahead of his opponent, the Bay State’s Attorney General, Martha Coakley.

Coakley’s campaign has been mismanaged from the beginning of the race, electing to rely on defacto support from the historical left-of-center electorate. But a little published fact is Massachusetts’ voters don’t have a majority of registered democrats, that belongs to independents (or non-affiliates)—51%, while democrats make up 37% and republicans a minute 11%—which dovetails precisely with national polling, showing independents’ falling support for President Obama.

Coakley seems to be suffering from Mr. Obama’s unpopularity. Her attacks on Mr. Brown as being a obstacle for the President’s health care reform has only led to more support for her opponent—apparently, the Bay State doesn’t much consider that a deficit. What’s more, Coakley has even gone so far as to attack Brown as being an appendage of Bush/Cheney. After fact checking, it appears Messrs. Bush and Cheney don’t hold any elected office currently, making the claim a bit difficult to believe.

Meanwhile, Mr. Brown hasn’t had to reach back to the past to find political affiliations—Deval Patrick, the democrat governor of Massachusetts is widely unpopular, as are the national party’s leaders, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. That has translated into a seismic shift in the latest PJM/Cross Target poll, giving the conservative 10 point lead among likely voters, 52% to Coakley’s 42% and an out-of-margin-of-error lead in the latest PPP poll, 51% to 46%.

The special election is being viewed by conservatives as a referendum on the Obama Administration, but White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs has state they “are not on the ballot” (even though the President has gone on a last minute push). Mr. Gibbs may technically be correct, but with GOP wins in both Virginia and New Jersey, the elephant in Massachusetts may stampede into the US Senate.

-- Owen E. Richason IV

Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

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