An unpopular president, a polarized public

Washington, DC—As President Obama finds himself on the wrong side of Super Bowl 44 predictions, picking the Indianapolis Colts in a pre-game interview, the administration is getting much worse news.

In the most recent polling, President Obama finds his job approval rating at 47 percent, according to Real Clear Politics average. In four polls conducted by Marist, Rasmussen, Gallup, and FOX News, only one shows the president with a favorable rating. That poll, conducted by Gallup, surveyed 1547 adults, and also shows the widest gap between approving and disapproving respondents. Pollsters and political advisers widely disregard polls comprised of adults, and greatly favor “likely voters” over both adults and “registered voters” as LVs are the truest measure of public sentiment. 

Mr. Obama has the dubious distinction of being the most polarizing and least approved president in American history since polling has been conducted. With unemployment figures to likely be revised up from 9.7 percent, the president's job approval rating will dip yet again.

Both liberal and conservative political pundits have pointed to focusing on health care reform legislation rather than jobs and the economy-at-large as the main reason for the president's low approval rating. Voters validated that assumption in three recent races, electing Republican candidates who opposed health care reform to governorships in New Jersey and Virginia and a senate seat in Massachusetts.

Rasmussen Reports, the only polling firm that conducts daily polls and was closest to predicting Mr. Obama’s 2008 victory over Republican Arizona Senator John McCain, shows 54 percent of likely voters disapprove of the president's job performance while 46 percent approve.

Congressional job approval remains low for the Democrat majority with a RCP average of 70.2 percent of Americans disapproving. Majority Leader Harry Reid also finds himself trailing in his bid for reelection.

-- Owen E. Richason IV
Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

The elephant in Massachusetts

Scott Brown has gone from an obscure state senator to US Senate seat could-win in a race, if held a year ago, would have replaced Senator Ted Kennedy with another liberal democrat. But in the latest polling, Mr. Brown is either within the margin of error or ahead of his opponent, the Bay State’s Attorney General, Martha Coakley.

Coakley’s campaign has been mismanaged from the beginning of the race, electing to rely on defacto support from the historical left-of-center electorate. But a little published fact is Massachusetts’ voters don’t have a majority of registered democrats, that belongs to independents (or non-affiliates)—51%, while democrats make up 37% and republicans a minute 11%—which dovetails precisely with national polling, showing independents’ falling support for President Obama.

Coakley seems to be suffering from Mr. Obama’s unpopularity. Her attacks on Mr. Brown as being a obstacle for the President’s health care reform has only led to more support for her opponent—apparently, the Bay State doesn’t much consider that a deficit. What’s more, Coakley has even gone so far as to attack Brown as being an appendage of Bush/Cheney. After fact checking, it appears Messrs. Bush and Cheney don’t hold any elected office currently, making the claim a bit difficult to believe.

Meanwhile, Mr. Brown hasn’t had to reach back to the past to find political affiliations—Deval Patrick, the democrat governor of Massachusetts is widely unpopular, as are the national party’s leaders, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. That has translated into a seismic shift in the latest PJM/Cross Target poll, giving the conservative 10 point lead among likely voters, 52% to Coakley’s 42% and an out-of-margin-of-error lead in the latest PPP poll, 51% to 46%.

The special election is being viewed by conservatives as a referendum on the Obama Administration, but White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs has state they “are not on the ballot” (even though the President has gone on a last minute push). Mr. Gibbs may technically be correct, but with GOP wins in both Virginia and New Jersey, the elephant in Massachusetts may stampede into the US Senate.

-- Owen E. Richason IV

Chief Editor, Killswitch Politick

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