The democrats can’t win for losing, but the GOP can

There is no doubt the American people are not favorable to government health care reform. The issue tanks in approval polling and has the democrat party fractioning.

To spite the public disapproval, the latest end-around strategy by the democrats is to get something, anything through the Senate and House somehow, no matter what and no matter how. One wonders just what it is the democrat majority is doing on this kamikaze path.

Rasumussen Reports shows that while 50% of Americans are against government health care reform, 44% are for it. The problem for the 44%, who responded favorably, is what are they for? At present, there are several different bills between the House and Senate and the only one with news-making headlines, the plan proposed by Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) doesn’t yet have any legislative language to define exactly what it would and wouldn’t include.

What is so puzzling about this debate is the opposed to this or that plan are doing so because they know full well once anything is passed it will be the eye of the needle through which a fiscal albatross passes. On the other hand, those in favor of health care reform don’t seem to be at all concerned with the consequences, whether they are fiscal, privacy concerns or quality of care.

And that may be the greatest consolation for the unpopular majority party – they are working hard to get their base something their base wants. But that as it stands now, that will almost certainly cause them to lose big in 2010 as they head strongly ignore the economy and pay little more than lip service to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

While this may be good news for the Republican Party, it’s only as good as they make it. Should the GOP win big in 2010, they will have done so (at present) simply for not being democrats – kind of like the President winning the Nobel Peace Prize for not being George W. Bush. This will be a precarious place for the republicans – especially if they win a majority in the House. Any opposition to Mr. Obama plans will be labeled partisanship and it will be said that racism is yet to die among the voters.

The GOP will walk a fine line if they gain a significant number of seats or win outright; simply to oppose the president won’t be enough, they’ll have to put forth better alternatives and demonstrate why they’re so doing.

The democrat majority appears to be on an electoral suicide mission, but that mission will be complete if they can enacted a foothold in the door toward universal health care – once in, there will be little to no chance of slamming the door shut.

-- Killswitch Politick

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Numbers don’t lie (what the polls and audits really say)

There are inescapable facts in life: 24 hours in a day, 7 days in a week, and 52 weeks a year; plus the oldest two: death and taxes. There are also inescapable facts in politics and the economy but unlike the number of hours in a day, those facts can change quickly.

Then how could they be “facts”? Facts by their very definition do not change – unless of course, you’re talking politics or the economy and that is precisely why so many Americans do not trust politicians, talking head pundits, the media-at-large and all those polls they throw at us.

Let’s start with the presidential approval polls:

Real Clear Politics.com

Poll	Date	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	9/24 - 10/12	--	53.0	39.9	+13.1
Gallup	10/9 - 10/11	1547 A	56	36	+20
Rasmussen Reports	10/9 - 10/12	1500 LV	49	51	-2
CBS News	10/5 - 10/8	829 A	56	34	+22
Ipsos/McClatchy	10/1 - 10/5	1296 A	56	40	+16
Associated Press/GfK	10/1 - 10/5	1003 A	56	39	+17
Quinnipiac	9/29 - 10/5	2630 RV	50	41	+9
Pew Research	9/30 - 10/4	1500 A	52	36	+16
FOX News	9/29 - 9/30	900 RV	50	42	+8
National Journal/FD	9/24 - 9/28	1200 A	52	40	+12

As the chart denotes, Real Clear Politics averages a 13.1% positive margin for Mr. Obama. Yet there is only one poll in the nine cited that actually has any historical authenticity – Rasmussen Reports. Why? Because it is the only poll sampling people who actually vote, LVs or Likely Voters. These are individuals who vote in both in-year and off-year elections. The only other two worth noting are Quinnipiac and FOX News who sampled RVs (Registered Voters). The other six are worthless as they are a sampling of As or All/Adult voters.

This being the case, Rasmussen is the most accurate, reflecting that Mr. Obama’s approval rating has fallen below that of his election-win percentage of 53%, bad news for the President.

Now onto the latest in health care reform wherein Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) put forth a health care reform bill that was said to have been scored by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) at costing under one trillion dollars plus, would reduce the national deficit by slightly more than $80 billion over the next decade. But it wasn’t long before reports surfaced the CBO was scoring what amounted to nothing. The official bill language wasn’t included, so the score was derived from speculative figures. What’s more, is the insurance industry has published findings made by a trade group the Baucus plan would cost the average individual $1,500 more per year and about $4,000 a per family.

Which to believe? Simple, ask yourself has the government every enacted a program that reduces spending and cuts the deficit? Perhaps that's why 56% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track.