ACORN voter fraud investigations are underway in Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, PA, North Carolina, Connecticut. One Ohio youth registered 72 times. And Ohio's Secretary of State, Jennifer Brunner, is fighting to keep from verifying thousands of voter's eligibility.
Every presidential election encounters voter fraud, but this year is incredible in that the fraud is right out-in-the-open. And the American people are well served to have the FBI investigating these allegations.
Politically what is striking about this (outside the blatant illegality) is that with all of this intended to help Obama, is the fact it is diametrically opposed to the in-the-bag predictions Obama's supporters are espousing.
Karl Rove's analysis puts Obama's spending 3 to 1 over McCain, yet today's Gallup tracking poll among likely, traditional voters has McCain within just two points and the latest Investor's Business Daily IPP poll which called the 2004 presidential race within .04%, also has McCain within three points and both polls are within the margin of error. Moreover, an AP/Yahoo poll* that weighted 873 democrats against 650 republicans shows a two-point difference, with Obama at 44% and McCain at 42%.
What's more is that Obama has purchase costly air-time in late October and has ads running non-stop, plus, he's spending money in states he shouldn't really have-to -- meaning that the campaign coffers are quite large.
So, as often cited in this blog, something had to occur to move the polls in this direction as polls don't just move without reason. Perhaps the debate moved the poll numbers but that isn't seeing the forest-for-the-trees. What's moved the numbers in a McCain favorable direction is one man's words.
And it isn't the words of either of the candidates; it was a man now known as "Joe the Plumber". Now a national figure, this (pun-inescapable) average joe, this joe-six-pack has put the presidential race into a simple issue: taxes.
What may go down in election history is the now famous exchange between the plumber and the democrat nominee when Joe asked Senator Obama, "Your new tax plan is going to tax me more, isn't it?" Obama answered the question with a redistribution qualifier at the end of his reply, "I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody."
This has lit a fire under the McCain campaign and put Barack in an awkward position, having to redefine his statement so not to include the dreaded "s" word: socialism. And the mainstream media has been on a quest to disqualify the plumber.
Obama may have committed a faux pas that defines him going forward into the last three weeks of the election. What's more is John McCain has found a way to diffuse Obama's repeated attempt to lump the maverick with George W. Bush by introducing the last debate the humorous
fact, “Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you want to run again President Bush, you should have run four years ago.”
Coupled with McCain's new focus and talking points, he may well prove the conventional wisdom wrong.
*Interview dates: October 3, 2008 – October 13, 2008Interviews: 1,769 adults; 1,528 registered voters873 Democrats; 650 Republicans Sampling margin of error for a 50% statistic with 95%confidence is: ±2.3 for all adults; ±2.5 for registered voters±3.3 for Democrats; ±3.8 for Republicans
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
A Dud Debate
Last night's debate was a snoozer; period.
McCain looked as though he was just thawed out, programed with voice-recognition software and put on stage. Obama came across as arrogant at times and the majority of his remarks either made little sense or were peppered with euphemisms for "big brother government".
But niether candidate made a news-worthy gaffe or botched an answer or got in a knee-slapping zinger.
What this means is the race still remains just as it was yesterday before the debate: close.
Today's national tracking polls among likey voters are beginning to show signs of turning back to McCain, but this assertion requires another two days of the same tracking. And by that accepted standard, would effect a trend. Last night's debate will not have a full three day effect because (by comparison to the veep debate) no one watched the damn thing.
And with viewership as low as this debate garnered, the polls are highly unlikely to show significant swings. So with the polls starting to shift, and without a big bang to point to, the explanation must lie elsewhere.
Rush Limbaugh on his radio program today made a point to note that Obama has never put-up a fight in a tight race and won. "He can't close the deal" the radio talk show host observed. Even the primaries put on display the Illinois Senator's weakness: practically all media had declared Hillary down-and-out and then, like Rocky Balboa, she got up and fought back. Mrs. Clinton won state after state and put to-the-test the democrat primary system.
But as pointed out in this very blog, the fix was in from the get-go as the beltway dems, the far-left activist 527's, the DNC, democrat pundits and sympothetic media had enough of the Clinton reign.
Yet even with that massive support group Obama could not stop Hillary from capturing the most important primaries. His nomination came not of his own integrity and valition, but by the grace of the superdelegates.
So what would explain the stagnating poll numbers?
As William of Ockham would conclude, the simplest explaination tends to be the correct one. And that is: Obama is still a relative unknown and what is becoming known isn't so appealing to the man-on-the-street. And with Labor Day now five weeks behind, the voting public are paying day-to-day attention (probably because they have little choice given the onslaught of 24/7 meida and campaign politicking both by the parties).
McCain will also suffer from more media attention because of his lack of charisma and frankly, because of his age. But McCain has an advantage: he is a statesman whereas Obama is an upstart.
Moreover, though some of McCain's associates might be lobbyists, none have bombed the Pentagon, none have preached America a racist country, and probably none have been convicted of fraud, attempted bribery and money laundering charges.
Further, with negative ads characterizing Obama as a typical tax-and-spend liberal coupled with the his own gaffes, and those of his running mate, Joe Biden, the voting public are forming their opinions.
The polls are begining to reflect that as Obama's past associations, public statements and voting record become more known the harder it will be to explain away.
McCain looked as though he was just thawed out, programed with voice-recognition software and put on stage. Obama came across as arrogant at times and the majority of his remarks either made little sense or were peppered with euphemisms for "big brother government".
But niether candidate made a news-worthy gaffe or botched an answer or got in a knee-slapping zinger.
What this means is the race still remains just as it was yesterday before the debate: close.
Today's national tracking polls among likey voters are beginning to show signs of turning back to McCain, but this assertion requires another two days of the same tracking. And by that accepted standard, would effect a trend. Last night's debate will not have a full three day effect because (by comparison to the veep debate) no one watched the damn thing.
And with viewership as low as this debate garnered, the polls are highly unlikely to show significant swings. So with the polls starting to shift, and without a big bang to point to, the explanation must lie elsewhere.
Rush Limbaugh on his radio program today made a point to note that Obama has never put-up a fight in a tight race and won. "He can't close the deal" the radio talk show host observed. Even the primaries put on display the Illinois Senator's weakness: practically all media had declared Hillary down-and-out and then, like Rocky Balboa, she got up and fought back. Mrs. Clinton won state after state and put to-the-test the democrat primary system.
But as pointed out in this very blog, the fix was in from the get-go as the beltway dems, the far-left activist 527's, the DNC, democrat pundits and sympothetic media had enough of the Clinton reign.
Yet even with that massive support group Obama could not stop Hillary from capturing the most important primaries. His nomination came not of his own integrity and valition, but by the grace of the superdelegates.
So what would explain the stagnating poll numbers?
As William of Ockham would conclude, the simplest explaination tends to be the correct one. And that is: Obama is still a relative unknown and what is becoming known isn't so appealing to the man-on-the-street. And with Labor Day now five weeks behind, the voting public are paying day-to-day attention (probably because they have little choice given the onslaught of 24/7 meida and campaign politicking both by the parties).
McCain will also suffer from more media attention because of his lack of charisma and frankly, because of his age. But McCain has an advantage: he is a statesman whereas Obama is an upstart.
Moreover, though some of McCain's associates might be lobbyists, none have bombed the Pentagon, none have preached America a racist country, and probably none have been convicted of fraud, attempted bribery and money laundering charges.
Further, with negative ads characterizing Obama as a typical tax-and-spend liberal coupled with the his own gaffes, and those of his running mate, Joe Biden, the voting public are forming their opinions.
The polls are begining to reflect that as Obama's past associations, public statements and voting record become more known the harder it will be to explain away.
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