The Obama referendums: Virginia to turn red, New Jersey, purple?

Ten months into the Obama Presidency and almost three years into the democrat congressional majority, the first national races with national implications are trending republican, even in the bluest of states.

Most astute political analysts see two of four races as referendums on the Obama administration. And with good cause as they are gubernatorial races in two states Mr. Obama easily carried in 2008; it now appears there is at least organized opposition and in the worst case scenario for the administration, voter’s remorse.

In the first circumstance, it means voters in northern Virginia are not motivated to go to the polls – it was they who delivered the state to Barack Obama last November; while in New Jersey it is an unadulterated protest to the incumbent governor. The second circumstance appears to the beginning of the end of Washington’s tone-deafness and the voters of these states are among the first to tell rank-and-file congressional democrats, “You’re next”.

Whichever circumstance you prefer, both have one underlying message – Americans have grown tired of do-nothing politicians who occupy themselves with cost-exploding health care reform and talk of saving the environment while the unemployment rate nears 10%, personal savings shrink, the economy continues to drift downward.

Aside from the national discontent, there are hard numbers that paint an even grimmer picture for next year’s mid-term elections – the leaders in these races are stumping on traditional American values with a hefty side of supply-side policies and traditional American values.

In Virginia, former Attorney General Bob McDonnell maintains a double digit lead over his establishment incumbent, Attorney General Creigh Deeds. Mr. McDonnell’s campaign has focused on Virginia’s economy, infrastructure and education with a careful calculation not to nationalize the race. That strategy paid-off big time, immunizing McDonnell against Obama stumping – something Mr. Deeds’ team now knows has done little to nothing for their candidate.

In New Jersey, incumbent tax-and-spend liberal John Corzine opted out of the state’s campaign finance system, spending a whopping $11 million more than Republican challenger Chris Christie, only to find himself trailing in the latest polls.

New York's ostensibly Republican District 23 saw a huge shake-up this past weekend when Dede Scozzafava, a liberal republican, left the race while trailing conservative Doug Hoffman, an accountant who entered the race as a challenge to the RHINO and establishment liberal Bill Owens. When Scozzafava left the race, she trailed the conservative Hoffman by 15 points and the latest polling shows Hoffman leading democrat Owens by 5 points.

Lastly, in Pennsylvania, Republican-endorsed candidate for the state Supreme Court, Judge Joan Orie Melvin, is running strong opposition to Democrat Jack Panella; this in a state Mr. Obama carried by 10 points.

What New Jersey, New York 23, Virginia, and PA demonstrate is that fiscal conservatism and libertarian get and keep the government out of our lives is taking hold around the country in early elections. Moreover, it sends a clear message to Washington’s tax-and-spend liberals, “You’re next.”

-- The Editors, Killswitch Politick

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