Numbers don’t lie (what the polls and audits really say)

There are inescapable facts in life: 24 hours in a day, 7 days in a week, and 52 weeks a year; plus the oldest two: death and taxes. There are also inescapable facts in politics and the economy but unlike the number of hours in a day, those facts can change quickly.

Then how could they be “facts”? Facts by their very definition do not change – unless of course, you’re talking politics or the economy and that is precisely why so many Americans do not trust politicians, talking head pundits, the media-at-large and all those polls they throw at us.

Let’s start with the presidential approval polls:

Real Clear Politics.com

Poll	Date	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	9/24 - 10/12	--	53.0	39.9	+13.1
Gallup	10/9 - 10/11	1547 A	56	36	+20
Rasmussen Reports	10/9 - 10/12	1500 LV	49	51	-2
CBS News	10/5 - 10/8	829 A	56	34	+22
Ipsos/McClatchy	10/1 - 10/5	1296 A	56	40	+16
Associated Press/GfK	10/1 - 10/5	1003 A	56	39	+17
Quinnipiac	9/29 - 10/5	2630 RV	50	41	+9
Pew Research	9/30 - 10/4	1500 A	52	36	+16
FOX News	9/29 - 9/30	900 RV	50	42	+8
National Journal/FD	9/24 - 9/28	1200 A	52	40	+12

As the chart denotes, Real Clear Politics averages a 13.1% positive margin for Mr. Obama. Yet there is only one poll in the nine cited that actually has any historical authenticity – Rasmussen Reports. Why? Because it is the only poll sampling people who actually vote, LVs or Likely Voters. These are individuals who vote in both in-year and off-year elections. The only other two worth noting are Quinnipiac and FOX News who sampled RVs (Registered Voters). The other six are worthless as they are a sampling of As or All/Adult voters.

This being the case, Rasmussen is the most accurate, reflecting that Mr. Obama’s approval rating has fallen below that of his election-win percentage of 53%, bad news for the President.

Now onto the latest in health care reform wherein Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) put forth a health care reform bill that was said to have been scored by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) at costing under one trillion dollars plus, would reduce the national deficit by slightly more than $80 billion over the next decade. But it wasn’t long before reports surfaced the CBO was scoring what amounted to nothing. The official bill language wasn’t included, so the score was derived from speculative figures. What’s more, is the insurance industry has published findings made by a trade group the Baucus plan would cost the average individual $1,500 more per year and about $4,000 a per family.

Which to believe? Simple, ask yourself has the government every enacted a program that reduces spending and cuts the deficit? Perhaps that's why 56% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track.